These 3 possible futures picture the food and fibre workforce in 2032, depending on how government and industry act. They're not mutually exclusive and aim to shed light on how the workforce may change over time. We explored additional scenarios for the aquaculture and red meat sectors.
3 possible futures
How we modelled the futures
NZIER used economy-wide TERM-NZ computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with assumptions based on our 3 possible future scenarios:
- Future 1: Business as usual
- Future 2: More technology
- Future 3: Transformation
We developed the assumption parameters using discussions with food and fibre sector industry representatives. We used workforce data from the year ending 31 March 2020 to forecast through to 2032.
What do the models mean?
Although the models provide numbers, we see them primarily as a qualitative high-level forecasts of sector trends. We're not trying to predict numbers of workers needed in specific roles, but to highlight the sector impacts of different scenarios.
For more information and discussion of the modelling, assumptions and results, download our workforce futures report.
Deeper sector specific analysis
Following the development of the sector-wide forecasts above, MPI commissioned NZIER to consider deeper sector-specific analysis for the aquaculture and red meat sectors.
Succession pathways in horticulture
The horticulture industry is experiencing strong growth, so it’s important it has clear succession pathways. These will help to ensure the industry is able to continue attracting skilled people and help those retiring from the industry to find suitable replacements.
MPI commissioned a report into financial and business mechanisms that can help people to gain ownership of horticulture businesses or build equity through horticultural careers. Most options in the report can also be applied in other food and fibre sectors.
Successful intergenerational business transition is vital for viability and growth of our food and fibre sector and businesses. A change in management or ownership is one of the biggest changes a business goes through in a generation. It requires choosing the most suitable succession mechanism, and good planning, communication and implementation.
Skills needed in the forestry and wood processing sector
MPI commissioned NZIER to provide a report on the current composition of the forestry and wood processing sector, broken down by key roles and skill levels. Better understanding the workforce composition of the forestry and wood processing sector will enable us to more accurately forecast how the workforce may change over time as the industry becomes more mechanised and uses more technology. It will also enable better forecasting of the skills needed to help transform the industry to add more value to the forestry and wood processing sector. Finally, it will help inform current and future actions around attracting, upskilling, and retaining people.
Te Uru Rākau – New Zealand Forest Service, the Forest Owners Association, and the Forest Industry Contractors Association surveyed the commercial silviculture and harvesting sector. This work provided an overview to better understand industry labour requirements at the time (2019), and insight into the main reasons for labour shortages.
2019 forestry labour requirements survey (PDF, 1.4 MB)
Silviculture labour requirements survey summary (PDF, 364 KB)
The action plan aims to support the development of a skilled, safe, diverse workforce. It was developed by the government and industry in 2019.
The forest industry includes nurseries, planting and tree maintenance, harvesters, sawmillers, and wood treatment operators.
Forestry and wood processing workforce action plan 2020-2024 (PDF, 3.5 MB)
Summary of the action plan 2020-2024 (PDF, 464 KB)
The Forestry and Wood Processing Workforce Working Group
To ensure the forestry and wood processing sector has the workforce it needs now and in the future, Te Uru Rākau – New Zealand Forest Service formed the Forestry and Wood Processing Workforce Working Group. This group of industry leaders helped formulate a plan of action to attract, train, and retain the skilled workforce the forestry and wood processing sector needs.
The role of the working group
The working group was formed to develop a workforce action plan for the forestry and wood processing sector.
The working group members
The working group was chaired by MPI, who also provided secretariat support. The working group was made up of industry organisations and government agencies with interest and expertise in forestry and wood processing sector skills.